Study on Global Industrialization and Industry Emission to Achieve the 2 °C Goal Based on MESSAGE Model and LMDI Approach

Shining Zhang,Xin Tan,Xing Chen,Fang Yang,Changyi Liu,Fei Guo,Weiyi Jiang,Yuanbing Zhou

doi:10.3390/en13040825

Abstract

The industrial sector dominates the global energy consumption and carbon emissions in end use sectors, and it faces challenges in emission reductions to reach the Paris Agreement goals. This paper analyzes and quantifies the relationship between industrialization, energy systems, and carbon emissions. Firstly, it forecasts the global and regional industrialization trends under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway2 (SSP2) scenarios. Then, it projects the global and regional energy consumption that aligns with the industrialization trend, and optimizes the global energy supply system using the Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact (MESSAGE) model for the industrial sector. Moreover, it develops an expanded Kaya identity to comprehensively investigate the drivers of industrial carbon emissions. In addition, it employs a Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) approach to track the historical contributions of various drivers of carbon emissions, as well as predictions into the future. This paper finds that economic development and population growth are the two largest drivers for historical industrial CO2 emissions, and that carbon intensity and industry energy intensity are the top two drivers for the decrease of future industrial CO2 emissions. Finally, it proposes three modes, i.e., clean supply, electrification, and energy efficiency for industrial emission reduction.

Highlights

The industrial sector is the largest sector of energy consumption with largest CO2 emission among the final sectors [1]
Freitas and Kaneko [19] used the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) approach to evaluate the changes in CO2 emissions from energy consumption in Brazil for the period 1970–2009 and the results demonstrated that economic activity and demographic pressure are the leading forces explaining emissions increase
The aim of this paper is to first explore the global industrialization trend, the energy demand, and emission trend for the world and 11 regions achieving the temperature control goal of 2 ◦ C of the Paris Agreement, and to expand the traditional Kaya identity to study the drivers of CO2 emissions from historical data and a future scenario using the LMDI approach

Summary

Introduction

The industrial sector is the largest sector of energy consumption with largest CO2 emission among the final sectors [1]. In 2017, the total energy consumption of the industrial sector accounted for 29% of the end-use energy consumption and 24% of the total CO2 emissions. Considering the indirect energy consumption and CO2 emissions from industrial electricity and heat, the percentage of industrial energy consumption and emissions are 43% and 42% respectively [2]. We define the “industrialization” stage as the proportion of the manufacturing industries’ output in the GDP structure. The industrialization process of a country is closely related to the stage of economic growth [3,4]. The basic characteristics of the industrialization are shown in the following aspects: (a) The increase in the proportion of manufacturing activities in national income structure. (b) The increase in the proportion of the labor population in the manufacturing industry. The industrialization stage can be further divided into three sub-stages: initial stage, intermediate stage, and late stage (Table 1)

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