Study on fractional vegetation cover dynamic in the Yellow River Basin, China from 1901 to 2100

Abstract

Increasing climate change makes vegetation dynamic. At the same time, dynamic changes in vegetation not only have a feedback effect on climate change, but also affect the hydrological cycle process. Therefore, understanding the vegetation change and its response to climate change is a priority for predicting future climate change and studying the impact of vegetation change on the hydrological cycle. In this study, the Yellow River Basin in China is the study area. Based on the analysis of the evolution characteristics of meteorological elements and fractional vegetation cover (FVC), the delta downscaling Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models are optimized. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and singular value decomposition (SVD) methods are used to investigate the impact of climate change on vegetation in the Yellow River Basin. The results show that: (1) in the four scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585), FVC in the Yellow River Basin from 2022 to 2100 shows an increasing trend, SSP370 (0.017 10a–1) > SSP126 (0.014 10a–1) > SSP245 (0.0087 10a–1) > SSP585 (0.0086 10a–1). Spatially, FVC in most regions of the Yellow River Basin show an increasing trend under the four scenarios, and the degraded areas are concentrated in a small part of the Yellow River headwaters. (2) There is a significant positive correlation between FVC and precipitation (Pre) and temperature (Tem) under four scenarios in the Yellow River Basin from 2022 to 2100. Under the same scenario, the annual average temperature can be considered as the dominant factor of FVC change in the Yellow River Basin. Under different scenarios, the impact of climate change on FVC under the high emission scenarios is greater than that under the low emission scenarios. This study will help to better understand the response of vegetation to climate change and provide a scientific basis for formulating ecological protection measures to cope with future climate change in the Yellow River Basin.