Potential Threats from Variations of Hydrological Parameters to the Yellow River and Pearl River Basins in China over the Next 30 Years

Lüliu Liu,Hongmei Xu,Yong Wang,Tong Jiang

doi:10.3390/w10070883

Abstract

An assessment of the impact of climate change on regional hydrological processes is vital for effective water resources management and planning. This study investigated the potential effects of climate change on water availability, seasonal runoff, flooding, and water stress in the Yellow River and Pearl River basins in China over the next 30 years, using a semi-distributed hydrological model based on a combination of five general circulation models with four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. The results indicated annual mean temperature could rise higher in the Yellow River Basin than the Xijiang River Basin during 2021–2050. Higher risks of small floods and some big floods, but lower risks of rare big floods are projected for both basins. Water scarcity will continually threaten the Yellow River Basin, especially during the dry season and around 2025. In comparison with the effects of climate change, population variation was expected to have a greater impact on water scarcity. A longer and drier dry season is projected for the Pearl River Basin, which could aggravate water stress and saltwater intrusion into the Pearl River delta. Although the present findings have implications for water resource management planning, caution should be observed because of the neglect of reservoir/dam operations and inherent projection uncertainty.

Highlights

Warming of the lower atmosphere increases its capacity to hold water vapor, which strengthens the hydrological cycle on a global scale [1]
In the Yellow River Basin, rising trends are projected for the annual mean temperature under the
In the Yellow River Basin, rising trends are projected for the annual mean temperature under four RCPs over the 30 years (2021–2050), with a 90% confidence bound of 0.3–4.2 ◦ C (Figure 5a)

Summary

Introduction

Warming of the lower atmosphere increases its capacity to hold water vapor, which strengthens the hydrological cycle on a global scale [1]. Alterations of annual water availability, seasonal discharge, and extreme flows, with variations among river basins, have been detected and projected by many previous studies. Significant trends of increase or decrease in river discharge during. In China, trends of decrease in annual runoff have been observed in most rivers in the northern areas since the 1950s [4]. Another recent study projected an increase in runoff in a catchment within the Yellow

Objectives

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion