Study on Factors Contributing to Severity of Ship Collision Accidents in the Yangtze River Estuary

Abstract

Abstract The Yangtze River estuary in China is characterized by a complex maritime geographical environment and presents significant challenges to ship maneuvering and control, thereby increasing the risk of ship collision accidents. Based on the 2013–2022 shipwreck investigation report published by Shanghai and Zhejiang Maritime Safety Administration, this paper analyzes the primary factors responsible for ship collision accidents severity in the Yangtze River estuary from four aspects, namely ship, environment, human, and management. Utilizing accident severity as the dependent variable and 24 factors, including ship type, gross tonnage, wind speed, and operational errors, as independent variables, the study employed a stepwise regression approach to filter the variables. Subsequently, an ordered probit regression model was constructed based on the ten most influential variables, followed by a marginal effect analysis. The findings indicate that a ship's gross tonnage, wind speed, ocean current speed, offshore distance, and day/night conditions significantly influence the likelihood of different accident levels. Specifically, wind speed, offshore distance, and ocean current speed have a negative impact on minor and general accidents while positively affecting major and severe accidents. Gross tonnage and daytime/nighttime have a positive impact on minor and general accidents but negatively impact major and severe accidents. Moreover, general accidents exhibit the most pronounced marginal effect for each explanatory variable. The findings can help the shipping authorities to identify the causes of ship collision accidents and take effective measures to reduce such accidents, thereby enhancing the safety of ship navigation in the area.