Study on Deformation Prediction of Landslide Based on Grey Theory and BP Neural Network

Abstract

The stability of the landslide can be effectively evaluated and predicted by predicting the future development of landslide deformation according to the actual deformation of the landslide. Therefore, the accuracy of the prediction regarding the landslide deformation determines the validity of the landslide stability assessment. The GM (1.1) model in the grey system theory, uses displacement time series to establish the grey differential equation. By solving the equation, we can obtain a time response function, which can then be used to predict the landslide deformation. The BP neural network is a used for training and exercising on the deformed samples. After the error meets the requirement, we can then use the trained model to predict the landslide deformation. This paper use both grey system theory model and BP neural network model to predict Jinlong ditch application field landslide deformation.The prediction results are compared and analyzed to test the accuracy of these two predictions. Finding a more accurate prediction method for application in actual engineering project has practical significance.