Study on China’s Import and Export Growth Rate Based on VAR Model

Abstract

AbstractThis paper takes the total amount of imports and exports in the period of 1979–2007 as sample, and the annual import and export volume increment as growth rate, and conducts an empirical study of the linkage relations between China’s import and export growth rate by using the VAR model and the dynamic variance decomposition method. The results show that: the import growth rate is the cause of export growth rate of the Granger Causality. In the short term, the main reason of the fluctuations of the total import and export growth rates are from their own changes. In the long-term, the impact of imports on the export growth rate improved and kept in a later period. The related relationships of growth rate have obvious increasing trend in the recent 30 years, and the two growth rates have a certain convergence.KeywordsImport and export incrementImport and export growth rateVAR modelGranger causality test