Abstract
Based on a probabilistic model, a method to calculate the available transfer capability (ATC) is proposed in this paper. The method combines Monte Carlo simulation with a sensitivity analysis. The power system uncertainties are considered using Monte Carlo simulation and the ATC is calculated quickly through a sensitivity analysis. Besides the expected value of ATC, the probabilistic distribution of ATC is also obtained. Moreover, a new load model is developed to consider the impact of load uncertainties including the system load level and all the bus load fluctuations on the ATC. The results of the IEEE-RTS system show that the proposed method is efficient in the ATC calculation.
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