Abstract
China’s steel industry is an energy-intensive sector. Synergistic reduction of emissions of CO2 and air pollutants (SO2, NOx, and PM2.5) in the steel industry has an important practical significance for climate change and air pollution control. According to the CO2 emission reduction intensity targets (CERO) and air pollutant emission targets (PERO) for 2020 and 2030, 28 types of energy-saving and emission reduction technologies (20 types of carbon reduction technology and eight types of air pollution end-of-pipe technology) were selected for examination, and a two-stage dynamic optimization model with collaborative implementation of PERO and CERO was built to assess the near future (2015–2020) and long-term (2020–2030) implementation plans for synergistic emissions reduction of CO2 and air pollutants. The results show that in the near future, the implementation of PERO will have a greater synergistic effect on CO2 emission reduction. CO2 emission reduction under PERO in 2020 will be 97 million tons (Mt) higher than that of CERO, an increase of nearly 26%. However, the effects of implementing CERO are better in the long run. Under CERO, the emission reductions of SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 in 2030 are 2.44 Mt, 1.47 Mt, and 0.86 Mt, respectively, and 7%, 4%, and 5% higher than the implementation of PERO. As far as marginal abatement cost is concerned, in the near future, the marginal abatement costs of CO2 and air pollutant equivalents are 1.06 yuan/kgCO2 and 133 yuan/kg pollution equivalent (pe) under PERO, which are 23% and 11% lower than that of CERO, while in the long run, the marginal abatement costs of CO2 and pollutant equivalents under CERO are 0.025 yuan/kgCO2 and 2.73 yuan/kgpe, about 96% and 95% lower than that of PERO.
Highlights
The steel industry is characterized by high energy consumption and high emissions
SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 will increase from 4.79 million tons (Mt), 3.53 Mt, and 1.82 Mt in 2015 to 4.82 Mt, 4.05 Mt, and 2.36 Mt in 2020, and the annual growth rates are 0.12%, 2.8%, and 5.4%, respectively
Emissions of CO2, SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 will decrease to 1.6 billion tons (Bt), 3.93 Mt, 3.48Mt, and 2.12 Mt in 2030 under the scenario of CPS-I, showing decreases of 18%, 32%, 18%, and 2.8% compared to BAU
Summary
The steel industry is characterized by high energy consumption and high emissions. Its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions account for approximately 15% [1] of China’s total CO2 emissions. Top-down methods, such as the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model [16,17,18,19,20], can quantify the impact of different policies on the macro-economy by establishing a correlation between air pollution control or carbon emission reduction policies and relevant factors in macro-economy It cannot accurately reflect the effects of technological changes. Peng et al [39] suggested the importance of studying co-controlling air pollutant and carbon emissions with a short-term perspective, in order to guide immediate policy making and analyzed the co-benefits under different scenarios in 2015 They did not consider the dynamic development of the relevant industries over time.
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