Abstract
Abstract. Tropical cyclones are one of the most intense weather hazards over east coast of India and create a lot of devastation through gale winds and torrential floods while they cross the coast. So an attempt is made in this study to simulate track and intensity of tropical cyclone "Fanoos", which is formed over the Bay of Bengal during 5–10 December 2005 by using mesoscale model MM5. The simulated results are compared with the observed results of India Meteorological Department (IMD); results show that the cumulus parameterization scheme, Kain-Fritsch (KF) is more accurately simulated both in track and intensity than the other Betts-Miller (BM) and Grell Schemes. The reason for better performance of KF-1 scheme may be due to inclusion of updrafts and downdrafts. The model could predict the minimum Central Sea Level Pressure (CSLP) as 983 hPa as compared to the IMD reports of 984 hPa and the wind speed is simulated at maximum 63 m/s compared to the IMD estimates of 65 m/s. Secondly "Fanoos" development from the lagrangian stand point in terms of vertical distribution of Potential Vorticity (PV) is also carried out around cyclone centre.
Highlights
Tropical cyclones are one of the most intense weather hazards of all meteorological phenomena that form over the tropical oceans/seas
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the influence of the choice of cumulus parameterization schemes in MM5 model to predict “Fanoos” cyclone track, which form over the Bay of Bengal affecting the weather over Tamilnadu region during Northeast Monsoon (NEM) season of 2005 and its features, with an emphasis on the accuracy of predicted rainfall amounts in terms of spatial and temporal distributions
The model derived Central Sea Level Pressure (CSLP) distribution show the gradual intensification of the system during the first 2 to 3 days and rapid intensification for about 24 h agreeing with the observations
Summary
Tropical cyclones are one of the most intense weather hazards of all meteorological phenomena that form over the tropical oceans/seas. The development of cyclonic storms over the Bay of Bengal is accounts for about 7% of the global annual total number of tropical storms (Gray, 1968) These meteorological hazards, which formed during the period, October through December are highly devastating nature and causes loss of life and property damage, especially when they cross the coastal states of India and Bangladesh (De. Angelis, 1976). Surface fluxes of heat, moisture, momentum, vertical mixing in the PBL, radiative heating and cooling play important roles in the development of tropical cyclones (Anthes, 1982). These consist of a series of practically necessary, but by no means sufficient, constraints on SST, environmental shear (weak), presence of ambient cyclonic vorticity and large-scale divergence aloft (Emanuel, 1986).
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