Study of the Risks of Termination of Contracts Concluded as a Result of Public Procurement

Abstract

State and municipal purchases play an important role in the functioning of the economy of various countries, and, according to the World Bank and the Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation, they account for up to 15% of expenditures in the structure of world GDP, and in some countries from 23 to 45%. The spread of the novel coronavirus pandemic has led to the need to strengthen the role of the state, its participation in regulating the national economy, and increasing spending on the social sphere. In this regard, the system of state and municipal procurement becomes an area of increased attention, and its effectiveness is comprehensively assessed. In the context of the high degree of uncertainty that has developed in world markets (closure of manufacturing plants, lockdowns and border closures), which has significantly limited the global turnover of goods, works and services, the risks of execution of state and municipal contracts are increasing significantly. In this regard, the purpose of the study is to analyze the reasons for termination of contacts in the system of Russian state and municipal procurement and substantiate proposals for minimizing the risks of termination for buyers and contract executors. The study used the methods of statistical, retrospective analysis, comparative analysis, forecasting elements, calculations were carried out using a system developed in the Python language. The data is aggregated into a PostgreSQL 12 relational database. The data analysis itself, the selection of dimensions and metrics, as well as their visualization are implemented in the Microsoft Power BI BI-system. As a result of the study, the following conclusions were obtained: the probability of termination of state and municipal contracts concluded on the basis of public procurement does not directly depend on such factors as savings in tenders, competition in tenders, the size of the participating company (small business), as well as the industry, under which the purchase is made. Issues related to the study of non-formalizable reasons for the termination of government contracts remain debatable.