Abstract
Statement of the problem. The methodology of population forecasting is considered using the example of a single region taking into account the proportion of the population permanently residing in a certain territory, but for some reason not participating in the formation of the increase in the total population. Using various hypotheses regarding the proportion of the population that does not participate in the formation of growth for various reasons, and predicting its impact on the demographic situation in the urba-nized territory, the article investigated the dynamics of population growth in the Orel region. Results. The obtained results showed that the presence of the share of the population not participating in the formation of growth reduces the negative dynamics: the population is declining, but the rate of decline is slowing down. The effect of «slowing down» the rate of population decline is achieved, among other things, by reducing the amount of pollution over time. Conclusions. The procedure of the proposed simulation modeling allows us to assess the demographic situation as the main indicator of the development of the region, depending on various factors of the life environment, among which the environmental factor is the prevailing one.
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