Study of the energetic electron fluxes at geostationary orbit with a time-varying NARMAX method

Abstract

The Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with eXogenous inputs(NARMAX) approach is briefly introduced. Since its advantage on nonlinear system modeling, this paper focuses on its application for describing the dynamic energetic electron flux(>2MeV)variations at the geostationary orbit. A basic one-step-ahead nonlinear model and a Kalman Filter modified one are built to map the relationship between the electron fluxes and the solar wind and the geomagnetic index. The prediction efficiency reaches up to 79.7%. The validation procedure further confirms that this method is effective and could be helpful in studying the radiation belt.