Study of the Development Prospects of the Russian Agrarian Sector in Conditions of General Self-isolation, with the Use of Decision Support System

Abstract

AbstractPurpose The purpose of this study is to develop a mathematical model that allows for the construction of various scenarios for the development of the agricultural sphere, taking into account the impact of the external environment on it. Design/methodology/approach The model developed by the authors is based on the OECD methodology, which, in turn, is based on a reference indicator that allows determining turning points, namely, growth and recession extrema. To improve the reliability of the obtained results, the model has a filtration procedure-based on the Hodrick-Prescott filter. Findings Based on the developed mathematical model of construction of scenarios of agrarian sector development, the software system allowing to automate the calculation of a reference indicator and process of comparison of the main indicators of agriculture development with a reference one was designed. The results of calculations have a visual graphical implementation, which is more accessible to represent the overall dynamics of the agricultural sector. Originality/value Developed by the authors, the mathematical model of building scenarios for the development of the agrarian sector and the software system that automates the calculation processes allow more flexible management not only of enterprises of the agrarian sector but also of the agricultural sector as a whole, due to the opportunity to develop a set of measures for both pessimistic and optimistic scenarios of development and to implement exactly the one that will be necessary under the current environmental conditions.KeywordsAgrarian sectorModeling agricultural sector developmentHodrick-Prescott filterOECD methodologyConfidence interval