Study of the deformation models of a pilot’s emotional experience in abnormal in-flight circumstances

Abstract

Aim. An important aspect of flight safety is associated with obtaining information on the potential performance of a pilot in emergency situations. For that purpose, the authors tested a number of currently existing deformation models of a pilot’s emotional experience in terms of the agreement between the predicted level of deformation obtained using such models and the actual level of deformation in abnormal in-flight circumstances (as the pilot’s emotional experience is what resists the destructive action of psychological stress that occurs in abnormal in-flight circumstances). Methods. The conducted study used the following methods: interview, psychological diagnostics, mathematical simulation, expert evaluation. Professional pilots (10 people) who have a level of experience sufficient for this research were interviewed in free form on their personal involvement in abnormal situations that is later evaluated by experts in terms of deformation of emotional experience. Using a special scale, the test subjects evaluated the hazard of their respective abnormal situation, as well as estimated 18 abnormal in-flight situations out of the database collected by the Saint Petersburg State University of Civil Aviation. All study participants were also tested for neuroticism using the Eysenck Personality Inventory (EPI) (adapted by A.G. Shmeliov). Using that data and models in the form of disaster variety, the predicted deformation of the emotional experience was calculated and compared with the expert estimate. Results. While, formally, one of the examined models (A.O. Lengarov’s model) proved to be somewhat superior as compared to the other one (S.G. Lobar’s model), but no fundamental difference between them was identified. The predictive values of emotional experience deformation loosely and insignificantly correlate ( p > 0.1) with the expert estimate. For A.O. Lengarov’s model r corr. = 0.2678, while for S.G. Lobar’s model r corr. = 0.2199. Conclusions. Currently, there is no proven, reliable model of emotional experience deformation. It is required to further collect, analyse and generalise data on pilot behaviour in abnormal in-flight circumstances. This study confirmed the presence of at least two out of eight “catastrophe flags” according to Rene Thom. Thus, the hypothesis that the model of a pilot’s emotional experience deformation is to have the form of fold catastrophe is correct. The method of objectification of abnormal in-flight circumstance hazard evaluation is to be significantly improved, probably, with the use of polynomial approximations, as well as by expanding the abnormal circumstance database of the Saint Petersburg State University of Civil Aviation, primarily by collecting situations involving more recent types of aircraft.