Study of Scenarios for Forecasting Freight Turnover on the Railway Considering Account Expert Information

Abstract

A scenario approach is considered, taking into account expert information for the development of forecast models using the example of operational indicators of the East Siberian Railway. When creating scenarios, statistical data, as well as point expert estimates, were used. Expert assessments are proposed for two options. The final model for forecasting the basic indicator, which is freight turnover, is a linear convolution of partial models. The number of private models is three. It is proposed to calculate weight coefficients using the hierarchy analysis method. A special feature of this method is the creation by experts of a matrix of judgments that can be checked for consistency. Three scenarios for the development of the transportation process were proposed, which were processed until results were obtained. It is shown that the scenario approach gives good results even under conditions of uncertainty in the transportation process.