Stochastic Models of Electricity Consumption

Abstract

The article considers a stochastic model of electricity consumption based on the convolution theory. It is assumed that the processes of switching on and off energy consumption on a city scale depend on a large number of independent random factors and have the form of a normal probability distribution. The functions of switching on and off the load are presented, graphs are plotted. The comparison of the intelligent power supply system with the existing power supply system in the Russian Federation is carried out. The reasons for the slow introduction of smart grids in the Russian Federation are revealed. At the moment, smart grids are not very popular in the Russian Federation, while in the countries of the European Union, the USA and China, projects related to the development, production of components and the widespread introduction of smart grids are actively receiving state financial support. Thus, the European Union allocates more than a billion dollars annually for projects in the field of electric power and smart grids. These funds are allocated according to the European Green Deal strategy. At the same time, the State Grid Corporation of China has introduced the concept of the "Global Energy Internet", which, in accordance with the government's expectation, will stimulate the smart grid market in the country. As in other countries of the world, the US electric power industry is also facing problems related to rising utility prices, fluctuations in peak load and the need to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The consequence of this was the adoption at the end of 2021 of an "infrastructure" law providing for large-scale investments in green energy projects.