Abstract
Fuyuan City is located in the black soil region of northeast China. Its fertile soil and flat terrain provide a reliable guarantee for the scale, intensification, and standardization of farmland. A large amount of land resources that can be used for the national food base has been developed, and the contradiction between the need for wetland protection and arable land development has become increasingly prominent. Based on the remote sensing data of 2000, 2005, and 2010, this paper simulates the future land use/land cover changes structure in Fuyuan City based on the Markov Chain model. According to the characteristics of Fuyuan City’s structure, economy, society, and natural environment, within the overall planning of the city, we explore three scenarios: business-as-usual scenarios, farmland conservation scenarios, and wetland conservation scenarios. The results revealed the following: (1) Under the business-as-usual scenario, the rapid development of Fuyuan City showed the characteristics of the continued expansion of urban area and the reduction of farmland and wetland area in 2020 compared with 2010. (2) Under farmland conservation scenarios, farmland was well protected and stable, while construction land expansion was restricted. (3) Under wetland conservation scenarios, wetland increased dramatically, which mainly derived from farmland, grassland, and unused land. According to the result, optimized countermeasures are proposed to balance the coordinated development of farmland and wetlands, to deepen the multiperiod planning of land use in Fuyuan City and to provide data support and a basis for decision-making.
Highlights
Land use/land cover changes are the result of the interaction between humanity and nature, and they involve complex mechanisms and processes
The land use structure is dominated by farmland, which is in line with the regional economic and social development characteristics of the Fuyuan Municipal Government in its efforts to build “one land and three districts” and develop “five major industries”
To further implement ecological protection policies and balance the harmonious development of farmland and wetlands, the Fuyuan City Land Use Ecological Protection Plan can be divided into three steps: (1) Intensive development and utilization of cultivated land, rationalization of space layout for land use, and determination of the farmland protection red line
Summary
Land use/land cover changes are the result of the interaction between humanity and nature, and they involve complex mechanisms and processes. Countries around the world are paying increasing attention to the problem of ecological function degradation caused by the conversion of wetlands to farmland and construction land or the reduction of wetland areas caused by natural factors, such as habitat degradation [5], biodiversity loss [6], water quantity and quality declines [7,8], and reduced carbon sequestration [9]. To respond to these emerging environmental problems, the first necessary step is to quantify the spatiotemporal patterns of agricultural encroachment into natural areas
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