Study of Global Temperature Levels Based on the ARIMA Model

Abstract

The continuous growth of global carbon dioxide content has exacerbated global warming [1]. Based on this issue, this article mainly studies global temperature levels based on the ARIMA model. This article first uses data collection and preprocessing to determine whether the global temperature increase in March 2022 has led to a greater increase than the past 10 years. Then, ARIMA and seasonal ARIMA are established to describe the past and predict the future, predict the specific time when the average temperature reaches 20℃, and test the accuracy of the model. Finally, it is concluded that seasonal time series prediction is more accurate. For this study, this article first collects and completes the required temperature data for visual analysis. And independent sample t-tests were conducted on the two rising scenarios, and the results did not lead to a greater increase. Then the chapter describes the past data through the Run chart, and uses ARIMA and seasonal ARIMA to predict the future global temperature level [2]. Afterwards, this article adopts pre analysis on the data used and uses a predictive model to calculate the specific time to reach 20℃. The study found that the average temperature could not reach 20.00℃ in 2050 or 2100, but reached 20℃ in 3062. Finally, based on the data description and the characteristics of the data itself, this article demonstrates that seasonal ARIMA is more accurate.