Structure of time variations in carbon dioxide in the atmospheric thickness over central Eurasia (Issyk Kul Monitoring Station)

Abstract

The results are presented of statistical analysis of the data obtained from the 1980–2006 systematic measurements of the volume concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmospheric thickness over central Eurasia. The trends of both monthly and yearly means of CO2 concentration are determined. During these 26 years, the yearly mean concentration increased by ∼42 ppm at a mean rate of (1.56 ± 0.18) ppm per year and reached ∼382.7 ppm. General statistical characteristics are found. The distribution function of the monthly mean concentrations of CO2 is characterized by the presence of a second maximum and a bias of the principal mode toward large values, and the mean (over the measurement time) monthly concentration and the median almost coincide. The distribution function of the yearly mean concentrations of CO2 is close to a normal distribution, and the mean (over the measurement time) yearly concentration, the median, and the mode also coincide. The trends of short-and long-period variations in the carbon dioxide concentration and their possible relation to a number of geophysical phenomena are revealed. Spectral analysis of the measuring data on CO2 revealed oscillations with periods of 4, 6, 12, 15, 21, 29, 40, 53, 84, and 183 months. A statistical model with the parameters of these oscillations describes the experimental monthly mean concentrations of carbon dioxide with an rms deviation of 2.3 ppm (±0.6% of the mean over the entire period 361.9 ppm) and the yearly mean concentrations with an rms deviation of 0.9 ppm (∼±0.3%).