Abstract
Unlike the global trends, the Russian strategic documents do not contain any precise definition and indicators for a “structurally and qualitatively new status of the energy sector” and also include a number of contradictions, while the reporting indicators and technological achievements are ad hoc. In this regard, this study specifies the conditions and the indicators for a positive outcome of the RF energy industry restructuring, as well as their comparison with the leading countries in electric energy generation to determine the trends and strategic priorities of the energy transition, which is based on a widespread use of renewable energy sources and the displacement of fossil fuels. Modified, industry and assessment method determined Sukharev’s conceptual approach to the structural changes in the national economy is used as the methodological basis for the research. Data from the International Energy Agency is the information database for the study. To implement the methodology of the study, structural changes in the RF energy balance were quantitatively assessed with regard to the identification of the required development vector (conditions for the positive restructuring outcome) and to the application of the existing measurement methods for the structural changes which provide a comparable assessment of the overall effect of changes in the structure and its elements. The conditions for a positive structural transformation of energy have been tested. The coefficients of structural differences were calculated to find the quantitative assessment of the overall effect from the changes in the energy resource structure. The indicators of the structural changes for the energy balance items and energy use in the USA, EU member-states, China, and the RF were analyzed. To assess the structural changes in the RF energy sector against the global trends, the indicators for the changes in the structure of the Russian energy resources were compared with the similar indicators for the US, Europe, and China. Assessment of changes in the structure of heat and electricity resources in Russia shows that the dynamics of the non-renewable and alternative sources shares does not meet the condition for a positive restructuring outcome, with the overall effect of the balance change over seventeen years being comparable with the changes in the American balance over the past seven years. Against the overall discouraging impact of the COVID crisis on the energy industry development, the experience of the developed countries shows that current priorities in the strategic development of the global energy industry are reviewed, and the sustainable prerequisites for the introduction and development of green technologies are being prepared. Hence, the potential areas of the study could cover forecasting of the dynamics in the structure of the national energy balance against the trends in the energy transition, the development of the mechanisms and tools to stimulate the alternative energy sources, as well as to assess the efficiency of their introduction.
Highlights
По сравнению с мировыми трендами в российских стратегических документах «структурно и качественно новое состояние энергетики» не имеет за собой точного определения и показателей, а также содержит ряд противоречий, в то время как отчетные показатели и технологические достижения в энергетической отрасли носят несистемный характер
This study specifies the conditions and the indicators for a positive outcome of the RF energy industry restructuring, as well as their comparison with the leading countries in electric energy generation to determine the trends and strategic priorities of the energy transition, which is based on a widespread use of renewable energy sources and the displacement of fossil fuels
To implement the methodology of the study, structural changes in the RF energy balance were quantitatively assessed with regard to the identification of the required development vector and to the application of the existing measurement methods for the structural changes which provide a comparable assessment of the overall effect of changes in the structure and its elements
Summary
Для реализации методики исследования количественная оценка структурных изменений энергетического баланса РФ производилась на основе идентификации желаемого вектора развития (условия позитивного исхода реструктуризации) и применения существующих методов измерения структурных сдвигов, обеспечивающих сопоставимую оценку общего эффекта изменения структуры и ее элементов. Оценка изменений структуры ресурсов тепло- и электроэнергии в России показала, что динамика долей невозобновляемых и альтернативных источников не соответствует условию позитивного исхода реструктуризации, где общий эффект изменения энергетического баланса за семнадцать лет сопоставим с изменениями, произошедшими в американском балансе за последние семь лет. Для этого необходимо специфицировать условие позитивного исхода реструктуризации для данной отрасли экономики, произвести его интегральную количественную оценку на основе анализа показателей структурных изменений для обеспечения сопоставимой оценки общего эффекта изменения структуры, а также элементов, сформировавших ее трансформацию. Наибольшим изменениям из рассматриваемых территорий подвергся баланс ресурсов электроэнергии США, для которого коэффициент Гатева находится на уровне 0,36 при максимально возможном значении, равном единице, что содержательно является индикатором полностью противоположной структуры энергетического баланса. Показатели структурных изменений по укрупненным статьям баланса энергоресурсов и использования энергии в России (2017 к 2000 г.)*
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