Abstract
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify and prioritize the positive and negative impacts of tourism on the process of tourism growth at a national scale in Iran, by taking into account the reviews of previous studies, views of experts and structural analysis. Design/methodology/approach In this investigation, structural analysis technique has been used to identify the correlation between variables by using mix method data analysis. By using cross-impact analysis (N × N integer matrix) in the form of the Micmac method, the economic, sociocultural and environmental factors have been evaluated. Findings The results of the distribution of factors in the coordinate axes and the graphs between them indicate their features, and for reaching a sustainable system of tourism development, at first, priority should be given to the negative influential factors, especially the environmental fields, and then the focus should be on the decrease of the dual and risk variables as they cannot be anticipated. Originality/value For the rapid growth of tourism in many countries, governments ensure that policies have been heeded in designing and preparing general plans of the country to understand how the development trend is moving on. In this respect, arisen impacts of tourism system are one of the important issues during the development path and in the field of tourism future. Because of the complexity and broadness of tourism activities, these impacts have also many interconnected dimensions that should also be considered while studying tourism impacts.
Highlights
What will the future of tourism look like? How do we prepare for future situations? To have a competitive role in the current globalized tourism system, it is crucial for any company, institution or country to find good answers to these kinds of questions, as evidenced by the large number of foresight agencies, organizations and departments operating around the world
We focus on cross-impact analysis (CIA) as one of the most applied quantitative methods at a national scale (Gordon, 2009)
We focus on perspective structural analysis in the form of CIA (Gordon, 2009)
Summary
What will the future of tourism look like? How do we prepare for future situations? To have a competitive role in the current globalized tourism system, it is crucial for any company, institution or country to find good answers to these kinds of questions, as evidenced by the large number of foresight agencies, organizations and departments operating around the world. The need for future studies to make long-term planning and strategies for proper management has become necessary This necessity has emerged, from the social, cultural, economic, environmental and technological opportunities and threats in most developing countries such as China, Brazil or India (Villacorta et al, 2014). Using future methods to help managers and policy makers to stimulate creative thinking to consider a wide variety of coherent descriptions of alternative hypothetical futures in a systematized way in the tourism system. These predictable actions will reflect different perspectives for present and future developments, which can serve as a basis for successive actions in the system (Amer et al, 2013)
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