Abstract
Exposure to high concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a leading risk factor for public health in India causing a large burden of disease. Business‐as‐usual economic and industrial growth in India is predicted to increase emissions, worsen air quality, and increase the associated disease burden in future decades. Here we use a high‐resolution online‐coupled model to estimate the impacts of different air pollution control pathways on ambient PM2.5 concentrations and human health in India. We find that with no change in emissions, the disease burden from exposure to ambient PM2.5 in 2050 will increase by 75% relative to 2015, due to population aging and growth increasing the number of people susceptible to air pollution. We estimate that the International Energy Agencies New Policy Scenario (NPS) and Clean Air Scenario (CAS) in 2050 can reduce ambient PM2.5 concentrations below 2015 levels by 9% and 68%, respectively, offsetting 61,000 and 610,000 premature mortalities a year, which is 9% and 91% of the projected increase in premature mortalities due to population growth and aging. Throughout India, the CAS stands out as the most effective scenario to reduce ambient PM2.5 concentrations and the associated disease burden, reducing the 2050 mortality rate per 100,000 below 2015 control levels by 15%. However, even under such stringent emission control policies, population growth and aging results in premature mortality estimates from exposure to particulate air pollution to increase by 7% compared to 2015, highlighting the challenge facing efforts to improve public health in India.
Highlights
A recent India-specific Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) identified air pollution as a leading risk factor for public health (India State-Level Disease Burden Initiative Collaborators, 2017; Indian Council of Medical Research et al, 2017)
We find that with no change in emissions, the disease burden from exposure to ambient PM2.5 in 2050 will increase by 75% relative to 2015, due to population aging and growth increasing the number of people susceptible to air pollution
In the Clean Air Scenario (CAS) scenario, large reductions in ambient PM2.5 concentrations are simulated across the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), spatially matching the changes simulated by the scenario removing residential energy use emissions (RES 0%)
Summary
A recent India-specific Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) identified air pollution as a leading risk factor for public health (India State-Level Disease Burden Initiative Collaborators, 2017; Indian Council of Medical Research et al, 2017). The Indian population is currently exposed to very high ambient PM2.5 concentrations (Conibear et al, 2018; Ministry of Environment and Forests, 2018), with annual mean concentrations of up to 150 μg/m3 in the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) and episodic concentrations regularly reaching 800 μg/m3 These concentrations are 15 and 32 times larger than the World Health Organization (WHO) Air Quality Guidelines (AQG) respectively (World Health Organization, 2006). In addition to changing concentrations, the disease burden from air pollution exposure is affected by population growth, population aging, and changes in baseline mortality rates (Hughes et al, 2011; Lelieveld et al, 2015) These other drivers vary the number of people susceptible to air pollution, and their effects can outweigh the impact from emission changes (Chowdhury et al, 2018; GBD MAPS Working Group, 2016, 2018). The business-as-usual scenario in India is predicted to
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