Abstract
Low- and middle-income countries have the largest health burdens associated with air pollution exposure, and are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Substantial opportunities have been identified to simultaneously improve air quality and mitigate climate change due to overlapping sources of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions and because a subset of pollutants, short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), directly contribute to both impacts. However, planners in low- and middle-income countries often lack practical tools to quantify the air pollution and climate change impacts of different policies and measures. This paper presents a modelling framework implemented in the Low Emissions Analysis Platform – Integrated Benefits Calculator (LEAP-IBC) tool to develop integrated strategies to improve air quality, human health and mitigate climate change. The framework estimates emissions of greenhouse gases, SLCPs and air pollutants for historical years, and future projections for baseline and mitigation scenarios. These emissions are then used to quantify i) population-weighted annual average ambient PM2.5 concentrations across the target country, ii) household PM2.5 exposure of different population groups living in households cooking using different fuels/technologies and iii) radiative forcing from all emissions. Health impacts (premature mortality) attributable to ambient and household PM2.5 exposure and changes in global average temperature change are then estimated. This framework is applied in Bangladesh to evaluate the air quality and climate change benefits from implementation of Bangladesh’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and National Action Plan to reduce SLCPs. Results show that the measures included to reduce GHGs in Bangladesh’s NDC also have substantial benefits for air quality and human health. Full implementation of Bangladesh’s NDC, and National SLCP Plan would reduce carbon dioxide, methane, black carbon and primary PM2.5 emissions by 25%, 34%, 46% and 45%, respectively in 2030 compared to a baseline scenario. These emission reductions could reduce population-weighted ambient PM2.5 concentrations in Bangladesh by 18% in 2030, and avoid approximately 12,000 and 100,000 premature deaths attributable to ambient and household PM2.5 exposures, respectively, in 2030. As countries are simultaneously planning to achieve the climate goals in the Paris Agreement, improve air quality to reduce health impacts and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, the LEAP-IBC tool provides a practical framework by which planners can develop integrated strategies, achieving multiple air quality and climate benefits.
Highlights
Low- and middle- income countries (LMICs) are disproportionately affected by air pollution impacts on health, with millions of premature deaths attributed globally to exposure to outdoor and household particulate matter each year (Health Effects Institute, 2018)
The Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP)-IBC modelling framework shown in Fig. 1 and described in Section 2 provides several outputs that are relevant for an integrated assessment of air pollution and climate change mitigation
These include i) emission estimates of greenhouse gases (GHGs), Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs) and air pollutants for historical years, baseline projections and scenarios that model the implementation of policies and measures, ii) PM2.5 concentrations representing the exposure to ambient air pollution by the population in the target country, iii) impacts on human health from this exposure, and from exposure to household-derived PM2.5 concentrations, and iv) climate impacts in terms of global average temperature change
Summary
Low- and middle- income countries (LMICs) are disproportionately affected by air pollution impacts on health, with millions of premature deaths attributed globally to exposure to outdoor (ambient) and household particulate matter each year (Health Effects Institute, 2018). Climate change is affecting many countries with increasingly severe and frequent heat waves, unusual levels of flooding and disruption of rainfall (Myles et al, 2018) These countries are least able to cope with the impacts of climate change, and air pollution places an additional burden on economic productivity, on the health system, and disproportionately affects the poor, women and children. Countries have outlined their contribution to mitigating climate change through their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which are currently not sufficient to achieve the global average temperature targets set out in the Paris Agreement, and additional ambition is needed (Rogelj et al, 2016). In the context of the increased ambition needed to meet global temperature goals, and the substantial burden air pollution has in LMICs, there is substantial potential for the development of integrated mitigation strategies in these countries to achieve simultaneous benefits for local air pollution and global climate change
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