Abstract
Abstract. Streamflow in a regulated river system is highly influenced by storage regulations and anthropogenic water use in addition to climate variability. Thus, changes in climate-streamflow relationships and dominant hydrological processes over time are difficult to quantify in a regulated system without partitioning influence of storage regulation and anthropogenic water uses. This requires a robust regulated river system model, which takes into consideration of both hydrological and man-made flow regulation processes, as well as anthropogenic water uses. In this study, a newly developed large-scale river system model (called "AWRA-R") was used to assess the influence of both anthropogenic and climate variability/change on streamflow non-stationarity in the Murray Darling Basin (MDB). MDB is one of the highly regulated basins in Australia with multiple large and small storages developed primarily for supplying water to irrigated agriculture. The modelling was undertaken for the period of 1950–2010, which includes rapid water resources development and both wet and dry climate. The AWRA-R model was calibrated for a reasonably long period and then, validated on an independent period. The calibrated parameters were used to simulate streamflow under current and pre-development conditions to analyse the streamflow variability and influence of climate variability and anthropogenic development on streamflow trend. This paper briefly introduces the model and the method used for assessing streamflow variability under natural and developed conditions and presents the results and findings.
Highlights
There are numerous studies that have been conducted to assess the potential impacts of climate change on rainfall and runoff at global to regional to catchment scales (Chiew et al, 2014; Vaze et al, 2010; Kamruzzaman et al, 2011; Rossi et al, 2009)
From a water resources management perspective, streamflow is of key interest to water managers and most of the river basins are regulated with multiple storages for water resources management around the world
This study used the newly developed AWRA-R river system model to analyse the influence of anthropogenic development and water use on streamflow and to partition this influence from climate variability/change impact on streamflow in a regulated river system
Summary
There are numerous studies that have been conducted to assess the potential impacts of climate change on rainfall and runoff at global to regional to catchment scales (Chiew et al, 2014; Vaze et al, 2010; Kamruzzaman et al, 2011; Rossi et al, 2009). Changes in climate-runoff relationships and dominant hydrological processes over time are difficult to quantify in a regulated system without partitioning influence of storage regulation and anthropogenic water uses This requires a robust regulated river system model, which takes into consideration of both hydrological and man-
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