Stratospheric ozone: Impact of human activity

Abstract

Current knowledge of the chemistry of the stratosphere is reviewed using measurements from the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS) experiment to test the accuracy of our treatment of processes at mid-latitudes, and results from the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment (AAOE) to examine our understanding of processes for the polar environment. It is shown that, except for some difficulties with N 2O 5 and possibly ClNO 3, gas phase models for nitrogen and chlorine species at 30°N in spring are in excellent agreement with the data from ATMOS. Heterogeneous processes may have an influence on the concentrations of NO 2, N 2O 5, HNO 3, and ClNO 3 for the lower stratosphere at 48°S in fall. Comparison of model and observed concentrations of O 3 indicate good agreement at 30°N, with less satisfactory results at 48°S. The discrepancy between the loss rate of O 3 observed over the course of the AAOE mission in 1987 and loss rates calculated using measured concentrations of ClO and BrO is found to be even larger than that reported by Anderson et al. (1989, J. geophys. Res. 94, 11480). There appear to be loss processes for removal of O 3 additional to the HOC1 mechanism proposed by Solomon et al. (1986, Nature 321, 755), the ClO-BrO scheme favored by McElroy et al. (1986, Nature 321, 759), and the ClO dimer mechanism introduced by Molina and Molina (1987, J. phys. Chem. 91, 433). There is little doubt that industrial halocarbons have a significant impact on stratospheric O 3. Controls on emissions more stringent than those defined by the Montreal Protocol will be required if the Antarctic Ozone Hole is not to persist as a permanent feature of the stratosphere.