Stratospheric modulation of the large‐scale circulation in the Atlantic–European region and its implications for surface weather events

Abstract

AbstractExtreme states of the stratospheric polar vortex can have long‐lasting impacts on extratropical circulation patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This provides windows of subseasonal predictability beyond the typical weather forecast horizon of about 10 days. Subseasonal forecasts of surface weather are of significant interest in weather‐dependent socio‐economic sectors. For example, demand and supply for electricity and gas are weather dependent and therefore accurate forecasts are important for the energy industry and energy trading. Here we investigate the subseasonal impact of stratospheric conditions on surface weather events relevant to the energy industry in five subregions of Europe in winter. We use a definition of seven Atlantic–European weather regimes to describe the variability of the large‐scale circulation on subseasonal time scales. Results indicate that weather events are often associated with more than one preferred weather regime. In turn, some weather regimes project onto a specific NAO phase, while others are independent of the NAO. As expected, anomalous stratospheric polar vortex states predominantly modulate the occurrence of regimes related to the NAO and affect the likelihood of their associated weather events. In contrast, the occurrence of weather regimes which do not project well onto the NAO is not affected by anomalous stratospheric polar vortex states. These regimes provide pathways to unexpected weather events in extreme stratospheric polar vortex states. For example, weak stratospheric polar vortex states enhance the likelihood of negative NAO. High wind events in Central Europe predominantly occur during the zonal regime, strongly projecting onto positive NAO. However, these events also occur during the Atlantic trough regime, which is unaffected by anomalous stratospheric polar vortex states and thus provides a pathway to Central European high wind events during weak stratospheric polar vortex states. A correct NAO prediction alone is therefore not sufficient to correctly predict surface weather after extreme stratospheric polar vortex states. Moreover, weather regime life cycles independent of the NAO also need to be forecast accurately.