Strategizing Towards Sustainable Energy Planning: Modeling the mix of future generation technologies for 2050 in Benin

Abstract

The Benin energy sector faces serious challenges, including an unfavorable energy mix with regular power shortages, erratic power outages, reliance on electricity imports, and dependence on traditional cooking stoves. This study has investigated strategies critical for Benin to employ to achieve 24.6%, 44%, and 100% renewable energy (RE) integration targets in the final electricity mix in 2025, 2030, and 2050, respectively. This study used the EnergyPLAN model to develop different energy scenarios suitable for Benin to achieve its proposed RE penetration target. A combination of natural gas (NG) with solar photovoltaic (PV), wind energy, hydropower, and concentrated solar power (CSP) is used to develop three scenarios for RE integration namely the government targets scenario, 2% RE per year scenario and 50% RE in 2050 scenario. The results show that the government targets scenario is too ambitious because of the current trend and pace of developing the energy sector. Moreover, a combination of 563 MW of NG, 125 MW of PV, 200 MW of wind, 600 MW of hydropower, and 60 MW of CSP would achieve 50% RE by 2050 under the 50% RE scenario. This scenario would decrease CO2 emissions by 50% with no CEEP generation. Furthermore, the total electricity generation from MSW in Benin is estimated to be 0.232, 0.3215, and 1.16 TWh/yr in 2025, 2030, and 2050, respectively. The study's findings could help decision-makers and stakeholders make informed decisions to promote the integration of RE resources in the Benin Republic.