Strategies to Identify Adults at High Risk for Type 2 Diabetes

Abstract

The Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) was a large, multicenter, randomized clinical trial testing interventions to prevent or delay type 2 diabetes. A major challenge was to identify eligible high-risk adults, defined by DPP as having both impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) (2-h glucose 140-199 mg/dl) and elevated fasting plasma glucose (EFG) (95-125 mg/dl). We analyzed how screening yields would be affected by the presence of established risk factors such as age, sex, ethnicity, BMI, and family history of diabetes, and how much yields would be enhanced by preselecting individuals with elevated capillary blood glucose levels. Of 158,177 contacted adults, 79,190 were potentially eligible (no history of diabetes, age 25 years and older, BMI > or =24 kg/m2). We focus on the 30,383 participants who completed an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). Based on OGTT, 27% had IGT with EFG, meeting DPP eligibility criteria for being at high risk of diabetes, and 13% had previously undiagnosed diabetes based on OGTT. Older age and higher BMI increased yield of high-risk individuals and those with newly discovered diabetes in most ethnic groups (whites, African Americans, Hispanics, and American Indians). In Asian Americans, age but not BMI predicted high risk and diabetes. Independent of age and BMI, the preliminary fasting capillary glucose predicted screening yield in all ethnic groups, with an inverted-U pattern defining DPP eligibility alone (IGT-EFG) and a steep curvilinear pattern defining either IGT-EFG or newly discovered diabetes. Fasting capillary glucose did not attenuate the affects of other participant characteristics in predicting IGT-EFG or the combination of IGT-EFG and newly discovered diabetes. The DPP screening approach identified adults with or at high risk for type 2 diabetes across various ethnic groups and provided guidance to more efficient use of OGTTs. Fasting capillary glucose is a useful adjunct in screening programs combined with data on age and adiposity.