Strategic Trade Analysis for Non-proliferation

Abstract

Strategic trade analysis is about national and global trade flows of items with strategic military value. Strategic items include goods with exclusive military use, but also dual-use items that have both military and civil uses. Because of their strategic nature, dual-use goods are controlled as a measure of non-proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction. Trade analysis in dual-use items, in particular the nuclear related ones listed for export controls by the Nuclear Suppliers Group, is the focus of this contribution. Despite the global dimension of strategic trade and controls, no specific data are available on global strategic trade. We thus suggest using open source data on global trade to support strategic trade analysis. The data are not specific to strategic trade, but related to it, providing a portrait of strategic trade in the absence of more specific data. It can be expected the effectiveness of controls be enhanced in several ways by the analysis of trade data related to strategic goods. By understanding the national and global trade in strategic-related commodities, officials may better focus controls, select companies for in-reach and audit, target transactions for analysis, verification, and inspection, and assess potential economic impacts of trade control regulations. The chapter covers data sources, a methodology for data selection, underpinning tools and data use cases. The context for strategic trade analysis is briefly recalled by introducing lists of items subject to export controls, with a focus on the nuclear-related ones.