Strategic low-cost energy investment opportunities and challenges towards achieving universal electricity access (SDG7) in forty-eight African nations

Abstract

Abstract Strategic energy planning to achieve universal electricity access and meet the future energy needs of African nations is essential to formulate effective policy measures for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Africa cannot afford a cost-prohibiting green energy transition to achieve United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 7. In this study, I employ open-access energy models, enhanced with geospatial data, to identify least-cost power generation investment options for forty-eight African nations. Different levels of electricity consumption per capita and costs of renewables are considered across four scenarios. According to the analysis, to achieve universal electricity access by 2030 in Africa, the power generation capacity needs to increase between 211 GW–302 GW, depending on electricity consumption levels and the cost of renewables considered, leading electricity generation to rise between 6221 PJ–7527 PJ by 2030. Higher electricity generation levels lead to higher penetration of fossil fuel technologies in the power mix of Africa. Natural gas will be the dominant fossil fuel source by 2030, while the decreasing costs of renewables will lead solar to overtake hydropower. To meet the same electricity demand levels, decreasing the cost of renewables can enable a less carbon-intensive power system, although higher capacity is also needed. However, Africa is still hard to achieve its green revolution. Depending on electricity consumption levels and costs of renewables considered, grid-connected technologies are estimated to supply 85%–90% of total electricity generated in Africa in 2030, mini-grid technologies 1%–6%, and stand-alone technologies 8%–11%. Off-grid solar and hybrid mini-grid solar technologies are essential in electrifying residential areas. Higher penetration of renewable energy sources in the energy mix creates local jobs and increases cost-efficiency. The analysis demonstrates that 6.9 million to 9.6 million direct jobs, depending on the policies and renewable development levels, can be created in Africa by expanding the power sector from 2020 to 2030 across the supply chain. While increasing electricity consumption levels in Africa leads to higher total system costs, it is also estimated to create more jobs, fostering political and societal stability. Finally, the decreasing costs of renewables could further increase the penetration of renewables in the energy mix, leading to an even higher number of jobs.