Strategic foresight: Scenario planning for business development of the Indonesian Orchid Association (IOA), West Java, Indonesia

Abstract

Agricultural businesses are often faced with uncertainty about the future, which can be both an opportunity and a threat to business development. This study aims to formulate a strategic foresight for business development at the Indonesian Orchid Association (IOA) West Java, Indonesia. Data collection was carried out using interview techniques and a literature study. Respondents were selected using a purposive sampling consisting of 18 business actors in IOA West Java, 2 employees of the Department of Food Crops and Horticulture West Java, and 1 BRIN researcher. The business development is planned with strategic foresight. The result showed that the driving factors that most influence businesses are the role of IOA West Java and the application of tissue culture technology. Strategic foresight for the next 5 years is focused on increasing farmer competence, applying tissue culture technology, and building market certainty, for the next 10 years, it is focused on meeting domestic demand for orchids by at least 50%, and for the next 15 years, it is focused on business continuity and increasing competitiveness.