Strategic Development Assessment: Evaluating Maximum Expected Monetary Value (EMV) and Expected Opportunity Loss (EOL) for the Cross River Watershed

Abstract

This research investigates optimal strategic decision-making for hydropower development in the Cross River Basin. The study aims to determine Expected Monetary Value (EMV) and Expected Opportunity Loss (EOL) through BDM, emphasizing overcoming challenges and optimizing resource planning for sustainable development. Collaborative efforts with Cross River Basin Development Authority (CRBDA), Parastatals, and Ministries facilitated comprehensive data collection, validated through the Pearson moment coefficient (R2 = 0.9376). The methodology includes dam project experiments, economic efficiency estimation, net benefit analysis, and BDM application. Noteworthy findings reveal hydropower with a Maximum EMV of 1.69 trillion Naira at 187.7% efficiency and a Minimum EOL of -0.79 trillion Naira at -87.77% efficiency. The dual Models jointly demonstrates 100% validation efficiency, making it a preferred choice for development. Graphical representation elucidates the dynamics between EMV and EOL. The research underscores the importance of employing strategic decision-making models like BDM, contributing insights to address challenges and optimize resource planning. Hydropower aligns with national goals and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Recommendations advocate for strategic policy implementation, emphasizing renewable energy adoption. BDM's efficacy in drawing inferences from historical information addresses dimensionality challenges. Recommending the Federal Government's deployment of BDM aligns with national SDG pursuits, integrating hydropower as a renewable energy source. The research solidifies BDM's effectiveness, contributing valuable insights. References support the methodology and enrich understanding of decision modeling and watershed management.