Strategic choices and electoral gains: unpacking constituency campaign effectiveness in Germany's mixed-member electoral system

Abstract

ABSTRACT Election campaigns are a critical component of democratic competition, and existing literature has extensively discussed the rise in personalization and localization in recent campaigns. However, the extent to which campaign strategies influence electoral success remains controversial. Therefore, our study examined the impact of candidate – and constituency-centred campaigns on nominal and party-list votes in mixed-member electoral systems and investigated which strategies were most effective on election day. Our analysis draws on representative national candidate surveys for German federal elections in 2009, 2013, and 2017. Our findings indicate that personalized campaign communication significantly affects electoral success, with greater emphasis on the candidate than the party, resulting in increased nominal votes. Our results also suggest that parties benefit from personalized campaigns as they increase party-list votes as well. However, neither localized campaign issues nor candidate-centred campaign organization pay off in electoral terms. Furthermore, candidates’ party affiliation significantly influences electoral success, demonstrating the continued relevance of parties to campaign dynamics and electoral outcomes.