Strategic analysis for Poland as a European hub for Belt and Road Initiative

Abstract

Aim/purpose – This paper aims at determining the role of Poland in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and identifying an alternative course of the trail. However, there are still many variables that can significantly affect the extent of Poland’s participation in BRI. Design/methodology/approach – The paper was based on a literature query and inter- views with six experts of the Polish logistics environment closely connected to the con- cept of the New Silk Road. The interviews and the literature analysis allowed of the authors to define potential scenarios for the course of the New Silk Road. In addition, the SWOT analysis was used to identify the Poland’s role in BRI. Findings – The most important factors that can significantly contribute to Poland’s par- ticipation in BRI are a very convenient geographical location and a strong logistics sec- tor, whereas the main negative factors are the ambivalent attitude of the Polish author i- ties towards the Chinese party and the underdeveloped modern railway infrastructure. The study identified some potential scenarios for the route of the New Silk Road, i.e., Poland as a European hub, transit only, southern road and northern road (ro-ro neigh- bors). The first scenario is the most favorable for Poland – Poland as a European hub. This is due to the current course of the New Silk Road and the location of Poland on the most economically effective transport corridor. Research implications/limitations – The research findings allow for a relatively precise definition of possible scenarios of the BRI Northern Corridor through areas directly related to Poland. The results may contribute to raising knowledge and awareness about BRI, which may provide insights into an academic and social debate on this topic. The upshot is that the results may entail actual activities contributing to increasing the chances of Poland for being a European hub gate for BRI. Originality/value/contribution – Previous publications explored various route alterna- tives of the entire New Silk Road, whereas there was no analysis of the last stage of the transport corridor on which Poland lies. The paper is a response to this research gap. Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative, New Silk Road, Northern Corridor, logistics, inter- national trade. JEL Classification: E27, E61, F15.