Abstract
AbstractThe increasing frequency and/or severity of extreme climate events are becoming increasingly apparent over multi‐decadal timescales at the global scale, albeit with relatively low scientific confidence. At the regional scale, scientific confidence in the future trends of extreme event likelihood is stronger, although the trends are spatially variable. Confidence in these extreme climate risks is muddied by the confounding effects of internal landscape system dynamics and external forcing factors such as changes in land use and river and coastal engineering. Geomorphology is a critical discipline in disentangling climate change impacts from other controlling factors, thereby contributing to debates over societal adaptation to extreme events. We review four main geomorphic contributions to flood and storm science. First, we show how palaeogeomorphological and current process studies can extend the historical flood record while also unraveling the complex interactions between internal geomorphic dynamics, human impacts and changes in climate regimes. A key outcome will be improved quantification of flood probabilities and the hazard dimension of flood risk. Second, we present evidence showing how antecedent geomorphological and climate parameters can alter the risk and magnitude of landscape change caused by extreme events. Third, we show that geomorphic processes can both mediate and increase the geomorphological impacts of extreme events, influencing societal risk. Fourthly, we show the potential of managing flood and storm risk through the geomorphic system, both near‐term (next 50 years) and longer‐term. We recommend that key methods of managing flooding and erosion will be more effective if risk assessments include palaeodata, if geomorphological science is used to underpin nature‐based management approaches, and if land‐use management addresses changes in geomorphic process regimes that extreme events can trigger. We argue that adopting geomorphologically‐grounded adaptation strategies will enable society to develop more resilient, less vulnerable socio‐geomorphological systems fit for an age of climate extremes. © 2016 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Highlights
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) concludes that many areas of the globe are already experiencing an increase in the frequency of extreme climate events (Table I) such as windstorms, floods and rainfall with some regions more affected than others (Christensen et al, 2013)
The aim of this paper is to describe the bi-directional research focus that is needed to address these challenges: first, the geomorphic impacts of extreme flood and storm events need greater saliency regarding the effects of future climate change on earth surface processes; and secondly, we urgently need research that can better understand the impacts of extreme events at the landscape scale – Slaymaker et al (2009) defined landscape as ‘an intermediate scale region, comprising landforms and landform assemblages, ecosystems and anthropogenically-modified land’
Geomorphological processes drive flood and erosion risk in three important ways: (1) landscapes and geomorphic processes in catchments can shape the way in which rainstorms result in floods; (2) river morphodynamics can have a significant impact on flood inundation magnitude and frequency and flood and erosion risk; and (3) geomorphic processes in estuarine and coastal zones can significantly impact how sea level and storm surge variations translate into inundation/flooding and erosion
Summary
Macklin and Iris Möller School of Geographical and Earth Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK 2 Cambridge Coastal Research Unit, Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK 3 Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, Faculté des géosciences et l’environnement, Université de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland 4 Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK 5 Department of Geography, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA 6 School of Geography and the Lincoln Centre for Water and Planetary Health, University of Lincoln, Lincoln, UK 7 Innovative River Solutions, Physical Geography Group, Institute of Agriculture and Environment, Massey University, Palmerston. Received 21 June 2016; Revised 9 October 2016; Revised 3 October 2016; Accepted 10 October 2016
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