Stock volatility and stroke mortality in a Chinese population

Abstract

This work was done to study the relationship between stock volatility and stroke mortality in Shanghai, China. Daily stroke death numbers and stock performance data from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2008 in Shanghai were collected from the Shanghai Center for Disease Control and Prevention and Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE), respectively. Data were analysed with overdispersed generalized linear Poisson models, controlling for long-term and seasonal trends of stroke mortality and weather conditions with natural smooth functions, as well as Index closing value, air pollution levels and day of the week. We observed a U-shaped relationship between the Index change and stroke deaths: both rising and falling of the Index were associated with more deaths, and the fewest deaths coincided with little or no change of the Index. We also examined the absolute daily change of the Index in relation to stroke deaths: each 100-point Index change corresponded to 3.22% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.45-5.49] increase of stroke deaths. We found that stroke deaths fluctuated with daily stock changes in Shanghai, suggesting that stock volatility may adversely affect cerebrovascular health.