Stock Volatility and Deaths From Heart Disease and Stroke in a Chinese Population

Abstract

O-31C9-4 Background/Aims: Little is known about the volatility of financial market on cardiovascular health. The Chinese stock markets were extremely volatile between 2006 and 2008. We examined the relationship between daily changes of the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) Composite Index (referred thereafter as the Index) and deaths from heart disease and stroke during 2006–2008 in Shanghai, the financial capital of China. Methods: Daily counts of deaths due to heart diseases or stroke between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2008 were obtained from Shanghai Center of Disease Control and Prevention. Daily stock performances of the Index were obtained from the SSE website. We analyzed the data using the time-series generalized additive model. In addition to the bidirectional changes, we also analyzed the data using absolute changes without considering the direction. Results: We observed U-shape relationships between Index changes and deaths from heart diseases or stroke: both up and down of the stock market were associated with more deaths and the fewest deaths coincided with no/little change of the market. When we used the absolute rather than bidirectional changes of the Index, each 100-point increase or decrease of the Index corresponded to 5.43% (95% CI: 1.95%, 8.91%) increase of heart disease death, and 3.13% (95% CI: 0.36%, 5.90%) increase of stroke death. Conclusion: Our analysis showed that deaths due to heart diseases or stroke fluctuated with daily stock change in Shanghai. These preliminary data suggest that the volatility of financial market may adversely affect cardiovascular health. (eg, Forest Fire, Earthquake, Tsunami, Flooding, etc.,)