STOCK MARKET DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN ARDL APPROACH

Abstract

This research project employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to investigate the intricate relationship between stock market development and economic growth. The primary objective is to systematically analyze the causal links and quantify the impact of key stock market indicators on economic growth, and vice versa. The methodology encompasses a thorough literature review to establish a theoretical framework, followed by the collection and examination of relevant data over a defined timeframe. Unit root tests and cointegration analysis are applied to assess the stationarity and long-term relationships between the variables. The ARDL model is then employed to estimate the dynamic interactions, considering lagged values of the indicators. Diagnostic tests are conducted to ensure the robustness of the findings. The project aims to contribute empirical insights into both short- and long-term dynamics, shedding light on the complex interplay between stock market development and economic growth. The results are expected to offer valuable implications for policymakers and researchers, providing evidence-based guidance for fostering sustainable economic development. Ultimately, this research seeks to advance our understanding of the mechanisms driving economic growth in the context of stock market development. Keywords: Stock Market Development, Economic Growth, ARDL Approach, Causal Relationship, Lagged Variables, Unit Root Tests, Cointegration Analysis, Empirical Insights, Sustainable Economic Development, Policy Implications.