Abstract
This paper uses particle filter to estimate daily volatility in the Brazilian financial stocks market and obtain an optimal allocation of assets via Monte Carlo approach. Our volatility model outperforms the Kalman filter besides overcoming non-additivity and non-Gaussian disturbance pattern. The historical statistics use an optimist Black-Litterman priori view to systematise our analysis in a rolling window. Our proposed method has better out-of-sample metrics than Markowitz, Naive (equal assets weight) and Bovespa Index benchmark.
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