Stochastic Simulations of Bed Topography Constrain Geothermal Heat Flow and Subglacial Drainage Near Dome Fuji, East Antarctica

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AbstractTopographic variability beneath ice sheets regulates ice flow, basal melting, refreezing processes, and meltwater drainage. The preservation of old ice layers and basal ice stratigraphy is sensitive to these subglacial processes, and Dome Fuji, inland East Antarctica, is one of the few regions where 1.5‐Ma old ice can be preserved for investigating a major climatic change that occurred in the mid‐Pleistocene. We used stochastic simulation methods and radar data to generate an ensemble of simulated bed topography with the continuous and realistic roughness necessary to assess basal conditions. Ensemble analysis reveals the magnitude and spatial distribution of topographic uncertainty, facilitating uncertainty‐constrained assessments of subglacial drainage and topographic adjustments to geothermal heat flow (GHF). We find that topographic variability can lead to widespread local GHF variations of ±20% of the background value, which aggregate to raise the regional value and suggest previously underestimated distributions and rates of basal melting. We also find that survey profile spacing has an increasing influence on topographic uncertainty for rougher bed, deriving an empirical relationship that could guide future survey planning based on uncertainty tolerance.