Abstract
The spatial geological heterogeneity of an aquifer significantly affects groundwater storage, flow and the transport of solutes. In the particular case of coastal aquifers, spatial geological heterogeneity is also a major determining factor of the spatio-temporal patterns of water quality (salinity) due to seawater intrusion. Whist the hydraulics of coastal hydrogeology can be modelled effectively by various density flow equations, the aquifer geology is highly uncertain. A stochastic solution to the problem is to generate numerical realisations of the geology using sequential stratigraphy, geophysical models or geostatistical approaches. The geostatistical methods (two-point geostatistics, Markov chain models and multiple-point geostatistics) have the advantage of minimal data requirements, e.g., when the only data available are from cores from a few sparsely located boreholes. We provide an extension of sequential indicator simulation by including the uncertainty of the hydrofacies proportions in the simulation approach. We also deal with the problem of variogram estimation from sparse boreholes and we discuss the implicit transition probabilities and the connectivity of simulated realisations of a number of categorical variables. The variogram model used in the simulation of hydrofacies significantly influences the degree of connectivity of the hydrofacies in the simulated model. The choice of model is critical as connectivity determines the amount and extent of seawater intrusion and hence the environmental risk. The methodology is illustrated with a case study of the Andarax river delta, a coastal aquifer in south-eastern Spain. This is a semi-arid Mediterranean region in which the increasing use of, and demand for, groundwater is exacerbated by a transient tourist population that reaches its peak in the summer when the demand for the permanent population is at its highest. The work reported here provides a sound basis for designing flow simulation models for the optimal management of groundwater resources. This paper is an extended version of a presentation given at the 2012 GeoENV Conference held in Valencia, Spain.
Highlights
Half of the world’s population lives in coastal areas and the transient and permanent populations of these areas continue to increase
We have extended sequential indicator simulation to include the uncertainty of the proportions of the hydrofacies
These proportions condition the sills of the variogram models, the variability of which provides a measure of the impact of the uncertainty in fitting theoretical models
Summary
Half of the world’s population lives in coastal areas and the transient and permanent populations of these areas continue to increase. This generates increasing, and often competing, demands for water. The problem is exacerbated in the Mediterranean region because of the combined effects of semiarid climate (high evapotranspiration and low rainfall) and seasonal tourism that increases the demand for water during the summer, which is the period of lowest aquifer recharge. The geology is heterogeneous and is unknown apart from limited direct data from sparse boreholes or the indirect geophysical information. Apart from borehole cores, the aquifer is not observable on any meaningful scale and the only realistic approach in such cases is via a stochastic model informed by sparse data and/or surface analogues (outcrops). The prediction of seawater intrusion is a stochastic problem
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