Abstract
Because rockfill strength and seismic ground motion are dominant factors affecting the slope stability of rockfill dams, it is very important to accurately characterize the distribution of rockfill strength parameters, develop a stochastic ground motion model suitable for rockfill dam engineering, and effectively couple strength parameters and seismic ground motion to precisely evaluate the dynamic reliability of the three-dimensional (3D) slope stability of rockfill dams. In this study, a joint probability distribution model for rockfill strength based on the copula function and a stochastic ground motion model based on the improved Clough-Penzien spectral model were built; the strength parameters and the seismic ground motion were coupled using the GF-discrepancy method, a method for the analysis of dynamic reliability of the 3D slope stability of rockfill dams was proposed based on the generalized probability density evolution method (GPDEM), and the effectiveness of the proposed method was verified. Moreover, the effect of different joint distribution models on the dynamic reliability of the slope stability of rockfill dams was revealed, the effect of the copula function type on the dynamic reliability of the slope stability was analysed, and the differences in the dynamic reliability of the slope stability under parameter randomness, seismic ground motion randomness, and coupling randomness of parameters and seismic ground motion were systematically determined. The results were as follows: the traditional joint distribution models ignored related nonnormal distribution characteristics of rockfill strength parameters, which led to excessively low calculated failure probabilities and overestimations of the reliability of the slope stability; in practice, we found that the optimal copula function should be selected to build the joint probability distribution model, and seismic ground motion randomness must be addressed in addition to parameter randomness.
Highlights
The uncertainty of structural parameters and seismic ground motion is a dominant factor affecting the engineering safety of rockfill dams
It is extremely important for studies on the dynamic reliability of the slope stability of rockfill dams to rationally characterize rockfill strength parameter-related nonnormal distribution characteristics from limited data and to build stochastic ground motion models suitable for the nonstationary random process
The authors of this study considered the coupling randomness of rockfill on the dynamic reliability of dam stability
Summary
The uncertainty of structural parameters and seismic ground motion is a dominant factor affecting the engineering safety of rockfill dams. It is critical to carry out in-depth studies on the seismic safety analysis of the slope stability of rockfill dams based on the coupling randomness of rockfill strength parameters and seismic ground motion. On the basis of deterministic calculations, the GPDEM can quantitatively consider a variety of uncertain factors and comprehensively evaluate the safety performance of structures based on probability analysis This method increases the use of the reliability analysis process, and the analysis theory and evaluation method are relatively complex. The reliability analysis of rockfill dam slope stability is mostly performed using a two-dimensional (2D) model based on a clear concept and mature theory; this model has convenient calculations and wide engineering applications [46,47].
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