Stochastic analysis of wind penetration impact on electricity market prices

Abstract

The intermittent nature of wind generation makes its operation and planning a complex problem and there is a need for the current analytical models to consider this uncertainty in generation appropriately. This paper focuses on developing appropriate mathematical modeling tools to examine the effect of wind generation on power systems. A stochastic wind generation profile is considered and Monte-Carlo simulation is used to simulate different scenarios of power generation. Subsequently, stochastic Uniform Market Price (UMP) is developed by incorporating the different reduced scenarios of wind power generation. Using the consequent Unit Commitment (UC) type model so developed, that incorporates market constraints and wind generation effects. The effect of changing the wind farm power capacity has been studied as well as the effect of the wake effect on off shore wind turbines.