Analysis of demand, generation, and emission for long-term sustainable power system planning using LEAP: The case of Bangladesh

Abstract

The availability of quality power is a foremost need for a nation's sustainable development. The government of Bangladesh has the vision to be a high-income country by 2041. To meet the power challenges in the near future associated with the vision, there should be a well-planned master plan for the power system. Bangladesh has a power system master plan (PSMP) up to 2041. However, it is unclear whether the PSMP is the most adaptable plan considering different power generation scenarios by considering the demand, generation, and emissions. Hence, the long-range energy alternative planning (LEAP) tool is employed for scenario analyses of Bangladesh's electricity sector from 2022 to 2041. On the demand side, the final electricity demand has been projected as 335.25, 314.76, 376.59, and 398.10 TWh in 2041 for business-as-usual (BAU), low growth (LG), medium growth (MG), and high growth (HG) scenarios, respectively. Considering technical and environmental parameters, eight generation scenarios are also analyzed on the supply side. The analysis projected 58,230 MW capacity for BAU and LG under P1 to P8 generation scenarios and 68,830 MW capacity for MG and HG under Q1–Q8 generation scenarios in 2041. In terms of emission in 2041, 167.4 and 165 MMt CO2 equivalent are found for the P8 scenario in the case of BAU and LG. In Q8, for MG and HG, the emissions are found to be 206.5 and 209.4 MMt CO2 equivalent, respectively. The generation scenarios of P8 for BAU and LG and Q8 for MG and HG are found to be suitable ones with respect to energy reliability and reduced emission. A similar analysis could also be performed to identify suitable power generation plans for other developing countries.