Sticks and Stones? Connecting Insurgent Propaganda with Violent Outcomes

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between ISIS propaganda content and ISIS-inspired attacks by those outside of the group’s control. We examine the content of ISIS’ English language magazines, as well as speeches by two of its top leaders. We find that statements made about enemy countries in most contexts are not associated with a higher likelihood of violence in those countries. However, when a country is mentioned in ISIS propaganda in the context of its participation in the air campaign, this corresponds to an increased likelihood that the country will experience a violent attack. This suggests that propaganda highlighting key military adversaries may play a role in directing attackers that are outside the control of the organization’s hierarchy to the group’s preferred targets.