Status of electric vehicles in South Africa and their carbon mitigation potential

Abstract

Road transport remains a key source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in South Africa. The objective of this work is to investigate the status of electric vehicles (EVs) in South Africa and their potential to mitigate carbon emissions. Charging of EVs from the current electricity grid is more carbon intensive than new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in the country. This study advances knowledge about GHG abatements by new motorcars in South Africa and demonstrates potential mitigation growth and the contribution thereof between EVs and technology improvement in ICE vehicles and their overlap. The study shows that mitigation impact of EVs in South Africa will start to increase from 2040 because of decarbonized power system and growth of electrified vehicles. Electric motorcars are projected to reduce baseline GHG emissions of motorcars by 19% in 2050 while ICE motorcars will contribute 63%. These results show that electric motorcars and overall technology improvements in motorcars will have significant influence in the reduction of road transport GHG emissions. Accumulated abated emissions of electric motorcars will overtake those of their ICE counterparts in 2050. Power grid is expected not to be fully decarbonized by 2050 and recharging batteries of EVs by non-renewable energy sources will produce net emissions. The main constraints to adoption of EVs in the country are the cost of EV purchase and limited charging infrastructure around the country. Furthermore, power supply constraints in South Africa are not conducive to rapid adoption of EVs as charging would burden the energy system. This shows that increasing national power generation with renewable sources would be invaluable. Provision of policy direction by the government with set EV sales, charging infrastructure targets and incentives would provide impetus for adoption of EV technologies in the country.