Abstract
Measuring the probability of extreme space weather events poses a challenge due to their infrequency. However, these rare events significantly and extensively impact various facilities in modern society. Extreme space weather events from the Sun have the potential to push the magnetosphere into an extreme state, where electromagnetic fields and particle environments behave differently than predicted by conventional theory, potentially causing more severe impacts than anticipated. In this study, we applied Extreme Value Theory to geomagnetic indices (such as the AE index, Aa index) derived from ground-based magnetometer observations spanning various solar cycles. We obtained the return levels of the indices with different return periods and identified an upper bound for the time series. Diligent precautions are necessary to mitigate the consequences of such extreme events, and surpassing the upper limit becomes increasingly challenging over time.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.