Statistical Properties of Global Precipitation in the NCEP GFS Model and TMPA Observations for Data Assimilation

Abstract

There are many issues regarding the assimilation of satellite precipitation data into numerical models, including the non-Gaussian error distributions associated with precipitation, and large model and observation errors. As a result, it is not easy to improve the model forecast beyond a few hours by assimilating precipitation. To identify the challenges and propose practical solutions to assimilation of precipitation, statistics are calculated for global precipitation in a low-resolution NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) model and the TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA). The samples are constructed using the same model with the same forecast period, observation variables, and resolution as planned in the follow-on GFS/TMPA precipitation assimilation experiments presented in the companion paper. The statistical results indicate that the T62 and T126 GFS models generally have positive bias in precipitation compared to the TMPA observations, and that the simulation of the marine stratocumulus precipitation is problematic in the T62 GFS model. It is necessary to apply to precipitation either the commonly used logarithm transformation or the newly proposed Gaussian transformation to obtain a better relationship between the model and observational precipitation. When the Gaussian transformations are separately applied to the model and observational precipitation, they serve as a bias correction that corrects the amplitude-dependent biases. In addition, using a spatially and/or temporally averaged precipitation variable, such as the 6-hour accumulated precipitation, should be advantageous for precipitation assimilation.