Statistical Models for Mobile Telephony Growth in Oman

Ahmad M.I,Almamri A

doi:10.22610/imbr.v6i3.1107

Abstract

This study examines the growth of mobile telephony in Oman and investigates the determinants of this growth. The growth rates were estimated by fitting four statistical models namely, Logistic, Gompertz, Exponential and Autoregressive to fifteen years of data on annual numbers of mobile subscribers. The in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting performance of these models was assessed by Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Square Error measures. Based on this criterion it was observed that the Gompertz model outperformed the other models under consideration and gave the minimum forecast error. This model was then used to estimate the speed of diffusion which was regressed on potential factors that could affect the growth of mobile telephony. The factors considered were fixed line service, prepaid service, per capita income, consumer price index and the number of operators. All these factors were found to have significant effect on the speed of diffusion of the mobile telephony in Oman.

Highlights

Telecommunications infrastructure is essential to national competitiveness and closely related to economic growth (Roller & Waverman, 2001)
To help Decision-makers in our country to have a clear picture about this Technical phenomenon, we decided to study this phenomenon by using technological forecasting such as growth curves and regression analysis
We can read more from previous model: 1) Fixed-Line Telephone Subscribers (FIX): As the Fixed-line telephone subscribers (FIX) coefficient is negative, this study demonstrates that mobile telephony is substitutes to fixed-line telephony in Oman—developing country

Summary

Introduction

Background: Telecommunications infrastructure is essential to national competitiveness and closely related to economic growth (Roller & Waverman, 2001). As telecom market had been fully liberalized, globalization and fleetly advanced in technology, the innovations of technology, instantiate Fax, Mobile phone, Fiber cable, Internet telephony and etc, changed the life-style of people in recently decade. The diffusion of Mobile telephony is extremely important to economic growth in developing countries. Oman Diffusion of Mobile Telephony: Information technology and communications have become the main elements that move forward and help Oman in its national development process. The graph shows a rapid increase in 2001because prepaid mobile services and SMS were introduced (Naqvi & Al-Shihi, 2009). Another sharp rise occurs in 2005 because Nawras became a second provider with Oman-Tel and the prices were fixed during the same period of time.

Methodology

Analysis

Findings

Conclusion