Statistical Modeling to Forecast the Wood-Based Panels Consumption in Iran

Abstract

In this paper, the consumption of wood -based panels in Iran are forecasted up to the year 2014 using statistical time series exponential smoothing and ARIMA models. The models performance was calculated in term of RMSE. ADF test was applied to investigate the stationary character of the data. The results indicated that the Holt-winters exponential smoothing model with the smallest RMSE can be selected as the best forecasting model for particleboard and plywood. The ARIMA (2,1,1) model provided the smallest RMSE and it was selected as the best forecasting model for veneer. Forecasting accuracy of the Holt-Winters model is more than the double exponential smoothing model, especially in the case of plywood. It was projected that consumption levels particleboard, veneer and plywood to increase and then decrease from 2010 to 2014 respectively. The most significant increase is forecasted in the consumption of veneer and particleboard. The average annual rates of increase are calculated as 5.1% and 1.17% for veneer and particleboard respectively. For plywood, the average annual rate of decrease is 3%. Particleboard. The consumption quantity of particleboard and veneer will increase from 684790 and 115880638 m2 in 2009 to 749428 and 206424496 in 2014 respectively. For plywood, the consumption quantity will be reduced from 32000 in 2009 to 23035 m3 in 2014.